The voting is over and the campaigning can stop. All the votes have been cast for this year’s Oscars, so the only thing we can do is wait. And speculate, of course.
Has much changed since the BAFTAs? Well, the marketing guys have been busting a gut to bring their films to the attention of the Academy voters: the nominees have been plastered all over the main American movie websites, that’s for sure. Whether it will make any difference to the outcome on Sunday night remains to be seen. There is one noticeable difference with the Oscars, though. Only 20% of the American Academy is British so, despite the Brits having a strong showing in the nominations – especially in the acting categories – the chances of a glut of winners aren’t especially high.
But some things remain the same. It still looks like being a two horse race between Birdman and Boyhood in the Best Picture and Best Actor stakes, and Michael Keaton and Eddie Redmayne look set to slug it out again for the Best Actor trophy.
Who’s going to win this time? The Coops Review’s crystal ball has been given another polish – it gets spoilt at this time of the year – and this is what it predicts.
Should win: Boyhood. There’s a lot of love for the film and its 12 year story.
Will win: Birdman. The film’s latest campaign has majored on risk-taking, and the word is that it’s resonated with Academy voters.
Should win: Alejandro Inarritu for Birdman. Apart from the risk element of the film, its “one long take” style is a technical achievement in itself.
Will win: Inarritu. He won the American Directors’ Guild Award on BAFTA night, and indicators don’t get much stronger.
Should win: Michael Keaton, Birdman. It would be a popular win, but …..
Will win: Eddie Redmayne, The Theory Of Everything. After all, most of us remember the Kate Winslet episode of Extras, don’t we?
Should win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice. It would be a major upset if she didn’t win. And there’s the general feeling that it’s her year.
Will win: Julianne Moore, Still Alice.
Best Supporting Actor
Should win: J K Simmons, Whiplash. He’s swept all before him in this category.
Will win: J K Simmons. He’s so far in front of the pack that it would be a massive shock if he failed at the last fence.
Best Supporting Actress
Should win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood, another clear front runner for an acting award.
Will win: Patricia Arquette, Boyhood. None of the other contenders look likely to overtake her.
So Oscar night looks like being a good one for Birdman. It’s likely to score in at least one other category, and that’s Cinematography, where Roger Deakins will lose out again for, unbelievably, the twelfth time. God loves a trier.
One of the main contenders for that same Oscar is the Polish film Ida, which is more likely to win the Foreign Language Film Category. In the absence of The Lego Movie, I’m expecting the Animated Feature award to go to How To Train Your Dragon 2.
As far as the losers are concerned, I don’t see The Imitation Game improving on its BAFTA showing and American Sniper could easily go away empty handed as well. The Grand Budapest Hotel is unlikely to win any of the big gongs, but it should figure in the craft awards, especially Hair/Make Up and Costume Design.
The night before the Oscar ceremony sees the Independent Spirit Awards take centre stage and the main contenders are remarkably similar – Boyhood, Birdman, Whiplash – but this time there’s the welcome addition on Selma in the major categories. The two sets of awards get more and more similar every year. And we don’t have long to wait to find out how close they are this time around.
I’ll be reviewing the winners and the losers on Monday, 23rd February here on The Coops Review. Or you can catch me on BBC Surrey and BBC Sussex at 11 am on the same day or on The Wireless just after 9 am.
The Oscars ceremony takes place overnight on Sunday, 22/Monday, 23 February.